Central government records primary surplus of R$4.839 billion in September with real revenues rising by 13.6%
The result exceeded the expectation of R$4.650 billion from economists consulted by Reuters and reversed the deficit of R$14.379 billion in September 2025.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM MONEY TIMES · 2 MIN
The central government ended September with a primary surplus of R$4.839 billion, as reported by the National Treasury this Thursday, October 29th. The number was above what the market expected: economists consulted by Reuters projected a surplus of R$4.650 billion, according to InfoMoney.
The data is a significant turnaround in the annual comparison. In September 2025, the result was negative, with a deficit of R$14.379 billion, according to Money Times. In practice, the difference between one year and another adds up to around R$19.2 billion, a calculation made based on the two numbers reported.
What caught the most attention was the behavior of the accounts. Net revenues reached R$204.947 billion, a real increase of 13.6% compared to September 2025, according to Money Times. This value excludes transfers to regional governments. Total expenses totaled R$200.108 billion, with a real increase of 2.4%. In other words, revenue grew much more than expenditure during the period.
The central government's result covers the accounts of the National Treasury, the Central Bank and Social Security, according to InfoMoney. The primary surplus measures the balance between revenues and expenses without considering interest on public debt. Therefore, it is the main thermometer of the fiscal effort, although it does not alone show whether the debt is on a sustainable path.
Reading a single month calls for caution. A good September does not guarantee that the pace will be maintained in the following months, and what really matters for those who follow public accounts is the sequence of results and the ability to maintain spending discipline in the face of fluctuating revenues.
What changes for the investor
A surplus above expectations tends to be read by the market as a sign of control over the accounts, which could, in theory, alleviate the pressure on the interest curve and on the exchange rate. This effect, however, depends on confirmation in the coming months and on how the fiscal risk reading evolves. It is worth monitoring whether the increase in revenues is repeated, how expenses behave and what the government signals about the fiscal target. This text is informative and does not recommend buying or selling assets.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
