Vance seeks to reopen negotiations with Iran hardliners as US prepares for post-election attacks

Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to one of the most influential members of Iran's hard-line wing in an attempt to restart peace talks. At the same time, according to a Fox News report, the United States warned allies that attacks on the country could resume after the midterm elections next week.

According to correspondent Greg Palkot, American fighters continue to make training flights in case the attack order is given. Gulf countries have been warned that new fighting could resume after the vote. Vance's letter, according to the report, deals with a possible framework for new negotiations, and President Donald Trump endorsed the initiative.

Trump, however, also talked about war. "We didn't start this war, this should have been resolved long before I got here," he said, adding that other presidents or countries should have addressed the issue and that Iran "will never have a nuclear weapon."

Parallel diplomacy

Palkot reported that Iran has made peace gestures: it met with envoys from Turkey and Pakistan over the weekend, Qatar is asking for negotiation and Tehran has proposed a peace plan. In a post, the Iranian foreign minister said that while its armed forces remain ready, the country continues to give diplomacy a chance and is analyzing ideas to ensure the implementation of a seven-day plan in less than a week.

The two parties, however, remain far apart on the nuclear program, which, according to the report, could be an obstacle to an agreement and a factor in pausing possible American action. Palkot added that it would take a week to ten days to bring an aircraft carrier back to the region.

Pressure and leverage

Former US Navy special forces member Mike Sarraille assessed, on the program, that Vance's initiative is "diplomacy in action, backed by strength". For him, the gesture does not indicate retreat: it would be Trump asking Tehran if it wants to negotiate before or after. Sarraille further highlighted that Vance ignored other leaders and sought out the head of the Iranian security council.

Sarraille stated that Iran survived six months of conflict, but has exhausted its offshore crude oil storage capacity and is losing a relevant part of its revenue. In his assessment, Trump has leverage, and new attacks, which he considers necessary, should target the central point of the dispute, nuclear ambition, in addition to the capabilities of the Revolutionary Guard and its chain of command and control, which includes its leaders.

General Keith Kellogg, quoted in the report, said he believes that, soon after the election, the president will conclude that Iran rebuilds a nuclear facility under Pickaxe Mountain and will take some action. According to him, the objective of the attacks would not be to defeat Iran, but rather to increase leverage in negotiations, which could force a nuclear capitulation and move towards a peace agreement for the Middle East.

What to watch out for

The transcript does not contain market data, and the scenario described is one of uncertainty: on the one hand, an open diplomatic window; on the other, a military preparation with a reference date shortly after the American elections. For the investor, the outcome of these two fronts is a geopolitical factor to monitor, with the potential to influence the mood of the stock market, the dollar and interest rates. Nothing in the report indicates, so far, a final decision by the president.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.